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Into
the Looking Glass: By Marcene S. Sonneborn Washington, D.C.--The role of the futurist is not to predict the future, but to look at trends and project where they may lead in the future. Because by studying the future, people can better anticipate what lies ahead. They can actively decide how they will live in the future by making choices today and realizing the consequences of their decisions. Although no one knows exactly what will happen in the future, by considering what might happen, people can more rationally decide on the sort of future that would be most desirable, and then work to achieve it. This was why about 1,600 futurists from more than 50 countries recently convened here to attend the World Future Society's annual conference. The speed of change, and rapid shifts in technology, economics, values and society, and politics, and the environment were the subjects of over 340 sessions and workshops. Participants compared problems, solutions, and issues to ponder about the coming millennium and predict where current social trends will lead us. Some of these trends included the following. Strategic Futuring Using information about the future, companies, governments, and individuals are able to mold and create their futures, attempting to minimize negative impacts and maximize chances for positive outcomes. Many corporations use futuring techniques in their strategic planning processes to make the most effective current decisions in order to insure their long-term survival and success. European nations are training teenagers how to use futuring techniques to create a future where they want to live. Such programs lead to a sense of empowerment and responsibility rather than a fear of the future and of deterioration of global conditions; studies have shown that suicide rates among German teenagers have declined as a result of teenagers' participation in these programs. Socio-Economic One issue being discussed which has the potential for far-reaching effects long into the future is the dual-career family whose children are in day care (or non-parental care) situations. Futurists predict a generational war unless there are major changes in how we raise our future generations as many believe children will not able to form strong human relationships with anyone because parental bonding was replaced with numerous care givers during the youngsters' formative years. Social Security will be another major cause of this generational warfare. When Social Security was first implemented, people at age 65 had a life expectancy of only two to three years. In 1995, the population of those 100 years and older increased by 216 percent. Today, there are four workers to support each person who is collecting Social Security. In 20 years, there will be only two workers to support each person supported by Social Security. Then too, improvements in healthcare and safety regulations have increased our healthcare expenditures. Even though laws now mandate that bike riders wear helmets, those riding in cars use seat belts, and automobile manufacturers install air bags, accidents still occur. And while those safety devices save lives, many survivors of the most serious accidents end up with debilitating injuries that require lifelong--and high-priced--attention. We blame the medical and health care communities, and lawyers and insurance companies for rising costs of health care, but we are the ones who elect officials and demand more and better services and tighter safety regulations. Agriculture World food supply is also a major issue being discussed by international groups. Today there is a 48-day supply of grain, the lowest in decades. Global warming is one condition exacerbating this factor. In the last decade, we have experienced record-breaking high temperatures year after year. The leaves of corn turn brown with the intense heat and sun, and lose their ability for photosynthesis. In countries such as China, irrigation water from rivers are no longer reaching their destination for farmlands because they are drying up further upstream with increased demand from cities for industrialization. We also have "pushed the envelope" to the point where no new technology can help us increase our grain production under the unfavorable conditions brought on by global warming: Not only has industrialization caused greater competition for farmland, the extensive use of fertilizers have maximized the physiological capacity of plants to absorb nutrients. Other futurists believe that with developments in genetic engineering, we will be able to implant animal DNA into plants to produce some of our requirements for animal protein. Research has already proved this is possible. The phosphorescence of the firefly was engineered into tobacco plants, creating a field of tobacco which glows around the edges of the leaves. Further research is being conducted as a result of findings from the 15-year study to map the human genome. Asia has 3.4 billion people today, and their economy is growing so quickly it is exerting considerable pressure on world grain supply. Why? Because when incomes rise by 50 percent, most of the money goes into diversifying diets by adding products such as meat, eggs, and beer. The fact is, animal products require eight times the amount of grain than when grain products are eaten directly. Thus, an increase in consumption of three bottles of beer per person per year in China equates to the entire Norwegian grain harvest for one year. China has considered whether or not the country should advocate an automobile-centered transport system. For by the year 2000, in China alone, a grain deficit of 200 to 260 million bushels is predicted. The conclusion was that the Chinese simply do not have sufficient land for autos. The world's population is growing by 90 million people each year. The issue of sustainability of the human population is leading to discussions about changing our values. For instance, some researchers are talking about reducing the physical stature of humans. Another study, conducted on eating habits related to health status, concluded that Italians who consumed 400 kilograms of meat were healthier than either those from India who are vegetarians, or Americans who consume 800 kilograms of livestock products. Space NASA is discussing privatization of space flight research and studying ways to attract private investment for space research and commercialization. The current issue of Discover predicts space vacations to be possible by 2005. They would last four days (though it takes 48 hours to get over the travel sickness), and cost $10,000. Genetaceuticals The Human Genome Project, a 15-year project of the Department of Defense, Department of Energy, National Science Foundation, NASA, and other federal agencies, is mapping the human genetic code. Pharmaceutical companies are already studying drugs which will suppress the action of specific genes on the human body, such as the gene for cancer or diabetes. Once all genes are mapped, genetic engineering can be used during infancy (or even in utero) to eradicate all predisposition to disease. Organ replacement will be possible without surgical intervention, and humans will be able to live longer, healthier lives. One issue to be considered is the impact of lengthening the lifespan on global population and sustainability of human beings. Workforce Skills Increasing brain power and the ability to assimilate information faster was the focus of a number of sessions. Learning techniques are being tested, and some, like distance learning, are being applied in school settings. However, most futurists predict that home schooling will not catch on so quickly because dual-career parents will require a quiet home environment from which to conduct business. Skills for the new millennium are being discussed. Creativity and imagination are becoming more important that the accumulation of knowledge. With improvements in computer storage and networks such as the Internet, information on any topic will be available instantly to almost anybody. But it will be the skillful application of that information which creates value. One futurist projected that, with the ability to communicate with computers verbally, the need to read and write would disappear. Auto-less city designs are being applied in European communities. Referred to as "sustainable cities," these communities are designed to reduce stress, increase safety, reduce pollution, and offer affordable, diverse housing with mixed-use zoning. They follow the principles being discussed as "the new urbanism" by individuals in our Central New York community such as Mark Falcone. Regarding employment, there is an increased emphasis on taking responsibility for oneself and one's own career or employment. Extensive discussions about the "haves and have-nots" are becoming focused on how to transition an economy from an industrial-era mentality of being taken care of for life by a large corporation in exchange for loyalty, to an information-based era in which individual responsibility is necessary. Telecommuting The transformation from agriculture to industry, which took place in the early 1900's in the U.S. (and the 1870's in England), caused considerable anguish in society. The change threw people into tremendous uncertainty over dependence on an employer and loss of personal control over their lifestyle and periods of rest and work, their income, and their social life. Today, technology developments that globally cannot be slowed or controlled in our current economy, are driving changes in the way we work and how we are employed back to some of the values we held dear under an agrarian system. Trends such as work at home, "it doesn't matter where you are to conduct your business," and increasing capabilities of information technology are requiring major shifts in labor, education, and political arenas. Intellectual Property Investment values are dramatically changing from hard assets which can be inventoried and seen, to intellectual assets which exist in electronic networks and in bits and bytes stored on a disk or in a computer database. Nicholas Negroponte, former director of the Media Lab at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was once asked to leave his notebook computer at a desk before he entered a room. He was asked the value of the computer, and replied, "Two million dollars." The woman behind the desk said, "That is ridiculous, I will record it as $2,000." Given the commercial value of the contents of the computer's memory, Nicholas Negroponte's response was accurate. This example captures the essence of the problem that occurs when an entrepreneur with a product for the new millennium approaches a bank or an investor for a loan. Our current accounting systems were designed for an industrial economy and require changes to adapt to a digital world. Our business methods have been developed for products which are tangible, and not for knowledge and intellectual assets which have their value in the future, dependent on how they are applied to a given problem or situation. Most of the companies dropping off of the Fortune 500 and disappearing reached their peaks when industrialization provided conditions that nurtured their growth. Today, it is companies such as Microsoft which are taking their places and will be the Fortune 500 companies of the Information Age. Conclusion These changes are inevitable, unstoppable, and painful for most of the population. Transitions, especially those which force us out of our comfortable positions created by a once-stable environment, create the need for new solutions. It is only by anticipating change and learning to adapt ourselves to this new environment that we can successfully transition to the Information Age, which many say is already in place. Futurists don't have all of the answers, if any of them. But they are asking the questions and thinking about the "what if's" that will give us all some control over our lives and the human condition in the coming millennium. EDITOR'S NOTE: The 1997 Annual Meeting of the World Future Society will take place July 17-19 in San Francisco, California. For more information about the World Future Society contact: World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814. Marcene S. Sonneborn is president, Innovation Management, Inc., a consulting firm that works with companies on strategic planning and futuring.
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